Altarawneh et al. NEJM publication Qatar study Figures 3 & 4 to focus on; you see in both mRNA shots, natural exposure immunity is way better than 2 doses or even a 3rd booster (Figure 3); Makary
by Paul Alexander
Protection conferred by hybrid immunity of previous infection & two-dose vaccination was similar to that of previous infection alone, at roughly 50%, suggestive protection was from prior infection
We see in figure 3 that the mRNA vaccines are (both Pfizer and Moderna) out performed by natural exposure immunity in terms of offering protection. A key to me is that the natural exposure immunity declines much slower than vaccinal immunity and the data shows this clearly.
“Conducted a national, matched, test-negative, case–control study in Qatar from December 23, 2021, through February 21, 2022, to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination with BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna), natural immunity due to previous infection with variants other than omicron, and hybrid immunity (previous infection and vaccination) against symptomatic omicron infection and against severe, critical, or fatal coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).”
Key Figure 3 (Pfizer (A) and Moderna (B)):
Figure 3 A Pfizer
Prior infection, protection ranges from 65.7% (4-6 months) to 54.9 >12 months out.
2 dose: protection ranges from 40.7% 14 days to 3 months to -3.4 at > 6 months (falls below 0)
3)3 doses: protection ranges from 58.9 to 44.7
Figure 3 B (Moderna)
Prior infection, protection ranges from 75.7% (4-6 months) to 53.5 >12 months out.
2 dose: protection ranges from 41.5% 14 days to 3 months to -10.3 at > 6 months (falls below 0)
3)3 doses: protection ranges from 57.2 to 41.2
6 months post shot for either mRNA vaccine there is negative effectiveness. We see that the booster for both vaccines, raise the protection above 50% yet at >1 month it falls to 44.7 and 41.2 respectively for Pfizer and Moderna. We see on the other hand, that natural exposure immunity is continuous and stays above 50% even at 12 months onwards.
“The analysis of the effectiveness of previous infection, two-dose vaccination, and three-dose vaccination as a function of time since the immunologic event (previous infection or vaccination) showed rapidly waning vaccine protection after the second and third doses but slowly waning protection from previous infection (Figure 3).”
Figure 4 (Moderna):
Authors wrote stunningly:
“The protection conferred by hybrid immunity of previous infection and two-dose vaccination was similar to that of previous infection alone, at approximately 50%, which suggests that this protection originated from the previous infection and not from vaccination. This finding is also explained by the short-lived protection of primary-series vaccination against omicron infections.”
Makary wrote: “Natural immunity wins again,” Dr. Martin Adel Makary, a public policy researcher at Johns Hopkins University, wrote on Twitter, referring to the Israeli study.
“Among persons who had been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, protection against reinfection decreased as the time increased,” the authors concluded, “however, this protection was higher” than protection conferred in the same time interval through two doses of the vaccine.”