Bar-On et al. Israeli study on 4th dose (2nd booster), shows that protection declines rapidly; protection against confirmed infection with OMI variant reaches a maximum in 4th week post shot

by Paul Alexander

Included persons who, on January 1, 2022, were 60 years of age or older and had received three doses of BNT162b2 at least 4 months before the end of the study period (March 2).

The key finding for our purposes is:

“Comparing the rate ratio over time since the fourth dose (Figure 2) suggests that the protection against confirmed infection with the omicron variant reaches a maximum in the fourth week after vaccination, after which the rate ratio decreases to approximately 1.1 by the eighth week; these findings suggest that protection against confirmed infection wanes quickly.”

“The adjusted rate of infection in the eighth week after the fourth dose was very similar to those in the control groups; the rate ratio for the three-dose group as compared with the four-dose group was 1.1 (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.2), and the rate ratio for the internal control group as compared with the four-dose group was only 1.0 (95% CI, 0.9 to 1.1).” These findings indicate no difference.

Reference: NEJM study

This study again shows the limitations and failure of the injection. I have serious concerns with the methodology as it is clear they could not or did not control for pressing confounding (distorting) variables that could impact the findings. This could lead often to overestimation (or underestimation) of treatment effect. For example, did they control for prior infection, did they control for early treatment drug use, did they adjust for behavioral differences in the 4th dose group, or pre-existing conditions, or differential treatment etc. My read suggests they did not. The researchers did account for some biases e.g. “These potential biases include the “healthy vaccinee” bias,9 in which people who feel ill tend not to get vaccinated in the following days, which leads to a lower number of confirmed infections and severe disease in the four-dose group during the first days after vaccination. Moreover, one would expect that detection bias due to behavioral changes, such as the tendency to perform fewer tests after vaccination, is more pronounced shortly after receipt of the dose.”

Figure 2:

see 8th week, peaks at 4th week:

Table 2:

see 3rd and 4th column: