CATASTROPHIC COVID vaccination in US on ALL-CAUSE ('excess') mortality: "COVID-19 vaccination campaign did not reduce all-cause mortality during COVID. No deaths averted due to mass vaccination USA

by Paul Alexander

Rancourt: The mass vaccination campaign was not justified in terms of reducing excess all-cause mortality; this tells us that excess deaths can be explained by lockdowns and the COVID vaccine itself

The argument I am making is that lockdowns and closures contributed (due to denied and delayed treatment, cancelling of elective surgeries and medical care, collateral damage of suicides in business owners, laid off workers, adults and children societally etc.) to the excess mortality across the entire pandemic period in the USA, outside of the impact of the mandated COVID vaccination program that this study looked at. The latter is a critical argument being made that is being studied yet the lockdowns can explain the excess deaths throughout the examination period, as the COVID vaccine itself caused harms and deaths.

We are clearly seeing this pattern across Europe and globally especially among younger age groups e.g. 25 to 55 years old where there is a surge in deaths after each administered COVID vaccine dose e.g. dose 1, 2, 3, and 4, particularly the boosters (3 and 4). When the virus abated and thus infections and deaths declined from virus, we were expecting that the excess mortality trends would be a declining one. We instead saw excess mortality remaining elevated and this was concerning and can be accounted for by the impact of the vaccine itself. We definitely see a surge in deaths across nations that track tightly with the vaccine roll out and with each administered dose. We even argue that there is immediate death post vaccine e.g. within the first 2 weeks and Kirsh argues for a 5 month delay and I argue a 6 month delay in death in some vaccinees post dose that accumulates.


What does this study find?

“All-cause mortality by time is the most reliable data for detecting and epidemiologically characterizing events causing death, and for gauging the population-level impact of any surge or collapse in deaths from any cause. Such data is not susceptible to reporting bias or to any bias in attributing causes of death. We compare USA all-cause mortality by time (month, week), by age group and by state to number of vaccinated individuals by time (week), by injection sequence, by age group and by state, using consolidated data up to week-5 of 2022 (week ending on February 5, 2022), in order to detect temporal associations, which would imply beneficial or deleterious effects from the vaccination campaign. We also quantify total excess all-cause mortality (relative to historic trends) for the entire covid period (WHO 11 March 2020 announcement of a pandemic through week-5 of 2022, corresponding to a total of 100 weeks), for the covid period prior to the bulk of vaccine delivery (first 50 weeks of the defined 100-week covid period), and for the covid period when the bulk of vaccine delivery is accomplished (last 50 weeks of the defined 100-week covid period); by age group and by state.

We find that the COVID-19 vaccination campaign did not reduce all-cause mortality during the covid period. No deaths, within the resolution of all-cause mortality, can be said to have been averted due to vaccination in the USA.

The mass vaccination campaign was not justified in terms of reducing excess all-cause mortality. The large excess mortality of the covid period, far above the historic trend, was maintained throughout the entire covid period irrespective of the unprecedented vaccination campaign, and is very strongly correlated (r = +0.86) to poverty, by state; in fact, proportional to poverty. It is also correlated to several other socioeconomic and health factors, by state, but not correlated to population fractions (65+, 75+, 85+ years) of elderly state residents.”

The excess all-cause mortality by age group (also expressed as percentage of precovid-period all-cause mortality for the age group) for the whole USA for the entire covid period through week-5 of 2022 is:


COVID-Period Mass Vaccination Campaign and Public Health Disaster in the USA From age/state-resolved all-cause mortality by time, age-resolved vaccine delivery by time, and socio-geo-economic data

Figure 9 (A and B):

Figure 9 (above). Excess mortality of the covid period in the USA (panel A) and in the ten most populous states of the USA (from left to right in each band: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan) (panel B), as percentages of the pre-covid period mortality, by age group. The constant dashed line B A 41 represents the value for the whole USA. ACM data were retrieved from CDC (CDC, 2022b), as described in Table 1.