My crude modelling of CDC's data on COVID deaths children (0-18 though its bogus corruption that CDC says 0-18 is peds) compared to 0-18 influenza deaths; I use the 2017-2018 flu season

by Paul Alexander

I make a crude model to show that twice as many deaths occur due to flu in 0-18 year olds and we never shut down or closed schools or masked

It's illogical and nonsensical and corrupted that CDC says 0-21 years or sometimes 0-20 or 0-18 is pediatric. They do this to front load the heavy deaths in persons in the later teen years. COVID has much more deaths there and near zero in young children. If at all, and Makary is also on record saying no ‘healthy’ child has died of COVID. Such corruption. IMO a ped is a child 3, 5, 7, 8 years old etc. IMO at most 13…but then, its open to interpretation. Anyway, here goes:

How did I come to the conclusion that twice as many deaths occur in children, well, I modelled crudely and am open to your model. Here are my considerations or inputs to the model:

1.) I use CDC’s prior reports on deaths from influenza and I focus on 0-17 years old data

Past Seasons

2.) I have chosen the 2017-2018 influenza season from CDC that reports 526 deaths in persons 0-17 years old. It was a heavy year. Lets forget about the 18th year as the data is not there; so 526 (data source 2017-2018); however, the CDC data gives a 95% CI of 176 to 725 deaths, and I have chosen to use the 725 upper limit and discount it by 100 deaths (I will be liberal) and thus my model uses the number of deaths to be 625; and now, I will remove 25 deaths and bring it to 600 so that you do not accuse me of fudging the data

Had I used 2014 to 2015, 2014-2015, the flat absolute deaths are 803 and the upper limit of the 95% CI is 799 and even higher than 2017 to 2018 season and so I chose 2017-2018 to be conservative with the children data so the skeptics would not start calling home to their mommies in trauma :-)

3) I model based on flu season lasts 6 months or so, October to April 1, so 6 months. Again, I am crudely modelling

4) I then look at the CDC’s reported COVID deaths 0-18 years old as the data is there for the 18th year, and this is 1,112 deaths. The assumption is this is since the start of COVID and again, crude modelling.

CDC COVID deaths

5) If this is so, and we accept the crude data above (note we can get more granular to refine this model if CDC wishes to give it), then we will need to adjust the COVID 0-18 year old data because it is over 2 years and also a 2 year or 24 month period is composed of 4 six month flu seasons, and again, do not get the vapors and rip your stockings, I am modelling to make sense of the data to see if we can glean a story or some sense…

6) So I modelled based on adjusting for the 24 month period by dividing the COVID 1,112 deaths by 4, to give 1112/4 = 278; as such I propose that approximately 278 or let us round it up to 300 deaths occur due to COVID in the age group of 0-18 per year; I was liberal to account for the decisions I made about the influenza 95% CI upper limit

7) Thus, IMO, we can say that 600 influenza deaths occur per year 0-17 years old (and I argue if we used 18 year old data it would be much higher) and 300 COVID deaths occur in the same age group, in the USA.

8) Leaving me to conclude and say that 600/300=2, twice as many deaths occur due to seasonal influenza yearly, compared to COVID in persons 0-17/18 years old. When others say its the same, I say no, seasonal influenza kills more children than COVID and the data above tells us this.

of course I am subject to corrections and schooling, we all are always. But its my model and my opinion to try to make sense. Its called science and learning and sharing and improving. Lets see your model.