Of excess-mortality & vaccine: dramatic rise in US excess death shortly after booster rollout early 2022; alarming U.S. Insurance Report Shows Double Excess Mortality in 35-44 Age Group in Q3 2021

by Paul Alexander

In 2020, after the pandemic struck, before vaccines came, a surge in COVID-19 related excess mortality seen & 25% of all excess mortality is not COVID; points to deaths from lockdown & school closure

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Now to excess deaths in America broken down by age; 25 to 54 year olds, take a look at the excess deaths in America. This 3rd Q of 2021 was the peak of vaccine mandates in the US.

The U.S. Society of Actuaries Research Institute has issued a report on mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic which includes around 90% of all Group Term Life insurance, thus providing quite a broad picture of excess mortality among the insured during the period up to and including Q1 2022.

As might be expected, 80% of the excess claims over the period are related to COVID-19. In 2020, after the pandemic struck, but before vaccines were available, we see a surge in COVID-19 related excess mortality, but interestingly around a quarter of all the excess mortality is not COVID-19 related. This suggests that lockdowns and restrictions were already having a strong impact on mortality. The vaccination programme started in December 2020 but really took of in Q1 2021 when 172 million doses were administered. The cumulative growth in COVID-19 cases was much slower in Q1 2021 than towards the end of 2020, but interestingly we see a large spike in COVID-19 related excess mortality during this period.

The most interesting period in 2021 however is Q3, where not only COVID-19-related but Non-COVID-19 excess mortality spikes up to almost 9%, then falls in Q4 and remains at around 5% throughout Q1 2022, which is an alarming figure.

When those figures are broken down by age we see a staggering rise in excess mortality in younger age-groups, close to and even up to double the expected mortality for people between 25 and 55. The report does not provide a deeper analysis of this, such as breaking it down according to cause of death. So, what might cause the deaths of twice as many people in their prime of life compared with what might be expected in a normal situation? What was different?

The report provides good data on mortality during the pandemic and it will be interesting to see how Q2 this year plays out, given that we see indications of worrying excess mortality not explained by COVID-19 in many countries. Further analysis, especially of the staggering mortality figures among younger people, is urgently needed. It is high time to recognize and honestly start focusing on the potentially devastating effect of the mass-vaccination drive.’