Redert: 'Covid-19 vaccinations & all-cause mortality - a long-term differential analysis among municipalities': a non-peer reviewed paper; these 'correlational results are key & adds to excess deaths!

by Paul Alexander

They analyzed association between covid-19 vaccinations & all-cause-mortality in N=340 Dutch municipalities (17.3M people, ~99% of population), during the entire pandemic period; note, 'correlational'

Author concludes while recognizing the limitations of this correlational study:

“We could not observe a mortality-reducing effect of vaccination in Dutch municipalities after vaccination and booster campaigns. We did find a 4-sigma-significant mortality-enhancing effect during the two periods of high unexplained excess mortality. Our results add to other recent findings of zero mRna-vaccine effectiveness on all-cause mortality, calling for more research on this topic. Our main result remains alarming and calls for more research on the effect of current covid vaccines on all-cause mortality.”

I urge caution as this is correlational and we cannot say the vaccine here caused the deaths. There is lot’s of confounding. Though those of us in the know and based on the stability of the excess mortality globally post vaccine, we know it is most likely the vaccine. Netherlands has about a 75% vaccine rate.

Declared short-comings:

“Clearly, our study has many shortcomings: we made use of very limited publicly available data. Our several requests for improved data (non-rounded vaccination coverages at more time instances) were unfortunately not granted by the Dutch government. The variability of our dataset was also limited, e.g. municipal vaccination-coverages have a spread of only ±5%. Our simple linear model between mortality and vaccines does not capture nonlinear effects or non-uniform populations. Especially with respect to the latter, our approach is cohortless, while covid and thus vaccine effectiveness against mortality are highly age-dependent [7]."

Source (André Redert, PhD):

Graph of excess mortality and vaccination rates Netherlands plotted today based on available data: