Fu Tseng et al.: "Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against infection and COVID-19 hospitalization with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants: BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5"

see negative efficacy at 150 days (5 months) and beyond

‘Conducted a test-negative case-control study evaluating mRNA-1273 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and hospitalization with Omicron subvariants.

The study included 30,809 SARS-CoV-2 positive and 92,427 SARS-CoV-2 negative individuals aged ≥18 years tested during 1/1/2022-6/30/2022.

While 3-dose VE against BA.1 infection was high and waned slowly, VE against BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 infection was initially moderate to high (61.0%-90.6% 14-30 days post third dose) and waned rapidly. The 4-dose VE against infection with BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.4 ranged between 64.3%-75.7%, and was low (30.8%) against BA.5 14-30 days post fourth dose, disappearing beyond 90 days for all subvariants. The 3-dose VE against hospitalization for BA.1, BA.2, and BA.4/BA.5 was 97.5%, 82.0%, and 72.4%, respectively; 4-dose VE against hospitalization for BA.4/BA.5 was 88.5%. Evaluation of the updated bivalent booster is warranted.’