Neil et al. (Jessica Rose); Official mortality data for England suggest systematic mis-categorization of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination
by Paul Alexander
All-cause mortality lower in vaccinated than the unvaccinated; conclusion is cast into doubt upon closer inspection of the data due to a range of fundamental inconsistencies and anomalies in the data
This is important scholarship and Dr. Jessica Rose again is part of some very good research. I have the good fortune of being part of her research group in COVID, and what a deep sophisticated intellect. Among the very best. Brave, courageous. Their research is actually showing that the mortality data is problematic and not as reported showing vaccinated with lower all-cause mortality. There are many problems usually with the analysis in COVID and the quality of research is typically of low quality. It can be due to a rush to publish, pure ineptness, bias in the researchers, serious methodological and analytical flaws, systemic errors and biases, e.g most research is published without statistical adjustment for co-morbidities between vaccinated and unvaccinated and this tremendously distorts findings.
A key paragraph: “The justification for these criticisms (which were aimed at both UKHSA and any others simply reporting the UKHSA data) was that NIMS was double counting some vaccinated people, and hence the NIMS population estimates for the number of people vaccinated were therefore too high. They claimed that the ONS data ‘fixed’ this bias and hence properly adjusted the results. However, as we pointed out in , while the NIMS data may indeed overestimate the number of vaccinated, it is likely that it also underestimates the number of unvaccinated (a much more difficult number to estimate than those vaccinated).”
“At first glance the ONS data suggest that, in each of the older age groups, all-cause mortality is lower in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. This conclusion is cast into doubt upon closer inspection of the data due to a range of fundamental inconsistencies and anomalies in the data. Whatever the explanations for these are, it is clear that the data is both unreliable and misleading. It has been suggested that the anomalies are the result of healthy vaccinee selection bias and population differences. However, we show why the most likely explanations for the observed anomalies are a combination of systemic miscategorisation of deaths between the different categories of unvaccinated and vaccinated; delayed or non-reporting of vaccinations; systemic underestimation of the proportion of unvaccinated; and/or incorrect population selection for COVID deaths….”
Covid-19 case rates based on UKHSA data in  and reproduced from